Polling company says rising uncertainty is better than rising fear

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THE CANADIAN PRESS

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OTTAWA - Canadians are starting to feel ever-so-slightly better about the economy and their own prospects as a federal election looms, a new poll suggests.

The Harris/Decima Investors Group survey indicates pessimism about the economy in the coming year has fallen six percentage points since the last such survey in May, to 32 per cent.

The number of respondents who thought their personal financial situation will deteriorate also slid slightly, to 17 per cent from 20 per cent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of respondents who thought the economy will improve or they will be better off personally remained largely unchanged from May.

"I don't know if this is a turning point, but at least it's a pause where rising fear is replaced with something more like rising uncertainty, which is better than rising fear," said Harris/Decima president Bruce Anderson.

The numbers appear to defy recent evidence on the ground that the economy, rather than improving, has actually worsened over recent months.

Since June, the economy has gone from creating jobs to shedding them -- 55,000 in July alone -- and inflation has emerged as a complicating factor.

The Bank of Canada said earlier this week it expects growth during the March-June quarter to be lower than its modest 0.8 per cent forecast.

Bill Chomous of the polling firm's investors group says one positive that may have influenced consumer sentiment is that gas prices have moderated across the country since mid-July, when the price of crude soared above US$140 a barrel.

While not strong, the numbers nevertheless will be somewhat welcomed by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who has given every indication he plans to pull the plug on his minority government as early as next week.

Among respondents who said next year will bring good times, 34 per cent said they would vote Conservative, while 31 per cent said they would vote Liberal.

The telephone poll of just over 1,000 Canadians was conducted Aug. 7-17, and is considered accurate to within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times in 20.