Remnants of Hanna, Ike caused most problems for the Maritimes to date

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Charles Perry

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Is the hurricane season finally starting to wane?

This year saw 12 tropical storms develop, several of which became major hurricanes and some of whose remnants brought severe winds, heavy rainfall and flooding to the Maritimes.

Although there is only one tropical storm on the immediate horizon, there will likely be another three or four before the official end of the season at the end of this month, says a spokesman for the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Centre.

Of course, that does not mean there cannot be hurricanes in November and even December, which was the case in 2005 when there was a record number of hurricanes and tropical storms, said meteorologist Matthew Ulrich of State College, Pa. But it is rare to get them that late in the year.

New Brunswickers were doused by the remnants of several tropical storms this year, with Hanna and Ike causing the most problems.

Eight days ago, the province was gearing up for what was expected to be its worst drubbing of the hurricane season, compliments of the remnants of Hurricane Kyle. But a last-minute change in direction took the storm into the Annapolis Valley instead of across the Bay of Fundy, resulting in the province getting only light to moderate rains.

Ulrich said predictions of 14 to 18 tropical storms this year, seven to 10 of which would reach hurricane status, still appear to be on the mark.

A tropical depression, located yesterday afternoon in the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico, was expected to develop into Tropical Storm Marco some time last night, said the AccuWeather spokesman. This would become the 13th tropical storm of the season.

To be given a name, a disturbance has to reach at least the status of a tropical storm, the level immediately below that of a hurricane.

Ulrich said there is no chance that this particular storm would be heading up the Atlantic, but noted that the latter has been a common track for a lot of this year's hurricanes.

He explained that there was a strong ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic this year along with a trough of high pressure in the central part of the United States. This combination tended to push the tropical storms into the New England states and the Maritimes.

The frequency of tropical storms, which prevailed in the second half of August and through September, should be done for this year, said Ulrich, but there will probably be a few more tropical storms by the end of the month.

With the Atlantic cooling off in the northeast, "we should be past the peak period for hurricanes," said the meteorologist.

However, one cannot be too complacent, he said, reminding that Hurricane Juan, which devastated Halifax a few years ago, was an October storm.

* Charles Perry's weather column appears daily.