CityThink survey respondents give Harper, Graham barely passing grades

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BY ALAN COCHRANE
TIMES & TRANSCRIPT STAFF

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Premier Shawn Graham has been pumping a lot of money and promises into Metro Moncton over the last few months but it seems voters here are still steamed over the provincial government's controversial handling of hot-button issues like French immersion, uranium mining and the reorganization of the health-care system.

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"He (Graham) is trying to be a Frank McKenna, but whether he has the magic touch of Frank McKenna is a big question mark," Mount Allison University political scientist Wayne Hunt said after looking at the responses to questions about the Graham government in this year's CityThink survey, conducted by Bristol/Omnifacts Research of Moncton.

The annual telephone survey, done in March, asked about 600 people in Moncton, Riverview and Dieppe the question: "Thinking about the provincial Liberal government of Shawn Graham, how would you rate their performance over the last year?"

Forty-five per cent of respondents rated the performance of the Graham government as 'fair,' while 28 per cent said it was 'good.' The fair to good responses outweighed the 19 per cent who said 'poor' and the three per cent who said 'excellent.'

But looking at the survey results from past years, it appears the provincial Liberals' approval rating in Metro Moncton has fallen sharply since 2006 when Graham became premier. Since January of 2006, the number of 'good' responses to the Liberal question have fallen from 44 per cent to 28 per cent, while the number of 'fair' responses have gone from 35 per cent to 44 per cent. The biggest drop for the Liberals came between 2007 and 2008 when the number of 'good' responses went from 44 to 28 per cent.

Craig Wight, Bristol's vice-president of research, says Graham's Liberals are actually more popular in other parts of the province than in Metro Moncton.

At this time last year, the provincial Liberals and Conservatives were basically tied in the "if an election were called today, who would you vote for" question.

The Liberals' popularity spiked last August and fell again in December and the two parties are now basically tied again.

David Alward, the new leader of the New Brunswick Conservative Party, is starting to make the rounds in New Brunswick and speaking out on various issues to build up support.

Over the course of its first term, Graham's Liberal government has made some controversial changes, like scrapping early French immersion, opening the door to a second nuclear plant at Point Lepreau, major changes to the administrative side of health care and seemingly ignoring widespread outrage over the prospect of uranium exploration and the fear of establishing uranium mines in this province.

Hunt says scrapping early immersion was a big mistake that angered many people in southeastern New Brunswick, and the fears of uranium mining caught the government off-guard.

Looking at the responses to the Graham question by age demographic, it's interesting to note that 100 per cent of the people in 18-24 age group said Graham was doing a poor job. Those who seemed to be the most supportive of Graham, albeit only 50 per cent were those in the 45-54 age group who gave him a 'fair' rating.

"The younger demographic doesn't have much use for Graham or Harper," Hunt said, noting the numbers reflect the fluidity of voter opinion and they seem "ready to make up their minds and boot out Shawn Graham."

He said older people are also looking harder at Graham's record and wondering if New Brunswick can do better, and Graham is lucky that the Tories and the NDP don't seem to have their acts together to the point where they could give the Liberals a run for their money if an election was called today.

Hunt said university age people are becoming more politically aware and more cynical. They are a generation that doesn't want governments to overspend because they feel they will be the ones paying for everything a few years down the road.

After looking at the survey responses, the Liberals don't seem too worried.

Carl Davies, communications director for the office of government members, said polls indicate public opinion at the time. He is confident the numbers would be different if the poll was carried out now that the Liberals have announced their budget and a five-point plan for the economy, which includes lower income taxes for individuals.

But many New Brunswickers are miffed at the across-the-board increases in fees, including driver's licences and car registrations.

Graham and his ministers have seemingly been paying more attention to Metro Moncton as a hotbed of activity and a driving force in the province's economy. The Premier has been selling his tax changes and five points for change and every speech includes references to the overall goal of self-sufficiency for the province. And he keeps reminding people of Metro Moncton that the province is committed to the restoration of the Petitcodiac River, a new downtown metro centre and spending millions of dollars to build a new courthouse.

While voters in Metro Moncton seem to be lukewarm to Graham's Liberals, the federal Conservative government of Stephen Harper received a similar response in the Bristol/Omnifacts survey.

The survey asked the question: "Thinking about the federal Conservative government of Stephen Harper, how would you rate their performance over the past year?"

Of a total of 605 people, 42 per cent said 'fair,' 30 per cent said 'poor' and 22 per cent said 'good.'

Harper received a somewhat warm reception when he visited Moncton earlier this month and made an unannounced visit to the Coliseum to catch the curling match between Canada and the United States.

Harper, however, failed to put a blue pin on Metro Moncton's spot on the Canadian political map in last fall's federal election as Liberal incumbent Brian Murphy won out over Tory candidate Daniel Allain.

Wight said federal parties always get a rough ride in the polls because it is easy for people to criticize them. He said Harper's attitude toward the economy -- don't worry, it'll be fine -- angers people. Also, many people are frustrated by Canada's presence in Afghanistan and angered when they see faces in the news of young Canadian soldiers killed there.