N.B. pandemic history professor says we're following the

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By Nick Moore
Times & Transcript Staff

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While there are certain unknowns about how the H1N1 pandemic will play out in the weeks and months to come, people can take comfort in knowing one thing, according to a New Brunswick expert in pandemic disease history.

A look back at past pandemics suggests that life goes on both during and after such an event. And as far as diseases go, today's H1N1 flu is following to a tee the model of past pandemics, says Dr. Jane Jenkins, who teaches a class called History of Disease at Fredericton's St. Thomas University.

"I think what we're seeing now with H1N1 is a classic example of the psychological impact that pandemics have on people," she said.

Jenkins said it's typical during pandemics for people to bounce back and forth between the two extremes of having a nonchalant attitude and having all-out panic. That has been the case with H1N1 since the virus' outbreak began last April.

Right now, Jenkins said fear of H1N1 is at what she'd consider a high level.

Back when reports of unusual flu activity began to surface in Mexico last spring (when it was better known as swine flu), Jenkins said fear was also high in the general population which is common when most novel flu strains are in their infancy.

"And then we were told everything was going to be okay, that government was in control and that Canada was one of the few countries in the world to have vaccinations for everyone," said Jenkins. "And then there was some complacency I think that set in, and people were saying 'it's just the flu' and 'just a couple of days of being sick.'"

In early October, a poll suggested that only a third of Canadians would get the H1N1 flu shot when it became available, compared to 45 per cent in late August.

But later in October, news broke that a healthy, athletic Ontario teen died from H1N1. That news sent shockwaves of panic across the country. And it all happened at time when H1N1 flu shot clinics were being cancelled and rescheduled because lesser than expected vaccine amounts were being manufactured.

Jenkins said it's normal that a young person dying from H1N1 would cause a shift in attitudes from apathy to hysteria, especially in 2009. She said that might not have been the case during an event like the 1918-1919 pandemic (commonly referred to as the Spanish flu), because deaths of young people from disease were more common at that time than today.

While any such news is concerning, Jenkins said history has taught us that the best and most beneficial attitude to have during any pandemic situation is one that's split between caution and calm.

"People have been told this is a dangerous virus and we've been told this by experts in their fields," she said. "The trick for government officials and public health officials is to find a way to balance the legitimate awareness of risk with a calming influence of trying to convey to people that there are resources available."

"That's the trick."

And an understanding of what the word 'pandemic' means can also help.

In June, when the World Health Organization announced H1N1 as the world's first official flu pandemic in 41 years, they said the designation had more to do with the virus' spread country-to-country and not that the virus had become more dangerous or aggressive.

All along, health officials have said they're concerned about the pandemic H1N1 flu strain because most people don't have immunity, and because it's targeting mostly young people -- an age group not considered to be at high risk of getting hit by typical seasonal flu.