D6

Norbert Cunningham

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Hello everyone! After today I've got three more on this topic, so read on for more on thinking critically:

Placebos

Most will know what a placebo is: a pill with no medicinal value. Researchers use placebos in drug and other medical tests, with recipients not knowing if they are getting a drug or a useless pill. This gives them a control group against which to measure the drug being tested and how well it actually works. What's this got to do with critical thinking? This: we should always keep in mind that those who observe a situation, or those controlling a situation, can sometimes change the situation itself without knowing it. That in turn can lead even experts to an incorrect or highly skewed conclusion.

Classic I

A classic example comes from education where it has long-since been demonstrated that if teachers begin using a new teaching method, student results quickly improve. Why? Change and new things interest students more than the same old, same old. They pay more attention. But soon the new "becomes old" and the interest fades. It is one reason to be skeptical and to examine closely each new educational fad that comes along. Is it really more effective and worth the training and expense to switch? Does research cover a long enough period to show true value?

Classic II

Similarly, research in the 1920s into working conditions in some U.S. factories was done to find out what would increase productivity. Any and every change made did so. Surprised by the finding, researchers concluded the workers were motivated extra simply by the interest being shown in what they were doing. Had they tested only one change, however, imagine how there could have been a rush to make that change across the nation, only for management to discover the effort and expense was for nothing. Would they clue in, or still believe the experts and begin looking for a non-existent 'problem' getting in the way?

Instincts

One lesson is to trust our own instincts. If something just doesn't seem right; doesn't quite add up; appears to be less than it is promoted as being, there is probably a reason. Try to pinpoint the reason. When you get the instinct that, even if all the world around you seems to be falling for something, it isn't right, it is time to put your critical thinking and research skills to work. If you are right, and often you will be, you will have the facts to demonstrate why.

Infamous box

If you haven't heard the expression that we need to "think outside the box", then you've been pretty much comatose the past decade. This is a "must-use" business buzzword, but many who advocate it haven't a clue how to go about it and wouldn't likely accept the results in any event! Still, thinking beyond the normal way you've always thought of a problem or issue; beyond the way your company or group has always approached an issue; trying to come at something from a unique angle to see if any good ideas result can be a valuable exercise if done intelligently.

But just because an idea is bold or "outside the box" doesn't automatically mean it's good. There is no substitute for clear thinking. Ponder "New Coke." It may itself have arisen from "thinking outside the box," but once those inside the firm had managed to convince themselves it was a great idea, the new idea itself become "the box" that nobody peeked beyond. Hindsight says they should have!

The unthinkable

Even better, sometimes, is to go for the "unthinkable." It's riskier and you need to really know your stuff, yet the world has many people who did just that and earned great rewards and fame. In this time of crisis for North American automakers, thinking the unthinkable (for them) is probably exactly what they need to survive. But will they? Nissan (known as Datsun then), when first arriving in the U.S. many decades ago had a so-so vehicle. It sent a senior executive across the U.S. with a car to offer as many ordinary people a test drive as he possibly could, then ask them what they liked and didn't like. He did this for several years. Soon their cars were vastly improved and ever more precisely to the public's liking. The rise of Japanese imports had begun. In Detroit, such a thing was unthinkable; they'd never done it, and never would in such a thorough, systematic way (See David Halberstam's book The Reckoning for a great comparative history and the story of how Japanese automakers cracked North America).

Thinking the unthinkable has its hazards. If you're wrong, you'll be really wrong. Often it will be too radical for the establishment, which means you'll have to go your own way; prove you're right. Indeed, that's how many entrepreneurs ended up where they are. The most famous may be Microsoft founder Bill Gates. He created the DOS operating system (precursor to Windows) to enable computers to be compatible with one-another, no matter the maker. He tried to sell it to IBM, but they didn't want to risk a full commitment, so they suggested to Gates that he license the system. Arguably, one of the biggest mistakes IBM ever made and one of the best bits of advice Bill Gates ever got for free.

The last word

Here's science fiction author Terry Pratchett:

"I'll be more enthusiastic about encouraging thinking outside the box when there's evidence of any thinking going on inside it."

* Lex Talk! is researched and written by Times & Transcript editorial page editor Norbert Cunningham.